Global Economic Environment Impacts

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Global Economic Environment Impacts

Five years after the global financial crisis, the world economy is showing signs of bouncing back this year, pulled along by a recovery in high-income economies according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, issued on January 14, 2014. Global growth is now projected to be slightly higher in 2014, at around 3.7 percent, rising to 3.9 percent in 2015, a broadly unchanged outlook from the October 2013 World Economic Outlook (WEO). But downward revisions to growth forecasts in some economies highlight continued fragilities, and downside risks remain. In advanced economies, output gaps generally remain large and, given the risks, the monetary policy stance should stay accommodative while fiscal consolidation continues. In many emerging market and developing economies, stronger external demand from advanced economies will lift growth, although domestic weaknesses remain a concern. Some economies may have room for monetary policy support. In many others, output is close to Potential, suggesting that growth declines partly reflect structural factors or a cyclical cooling and that the main policy approach for raising growth must be to push ahead with structural reform. In some economies, there is a need to manage vulnerabilities associated with weakening credit quality and larger capital outflows.

Developing-country growth is also firming, thanks in part to the recovery in high-incomeveconomies as well as modertting, but still strong, growth in China. Growth prospects foh 2014 are,vhowever, sensitivento the tapering of monetary stimulus in the United States, whichnbegan enrlier this month, and to rhe structural shifts takin  place nn thina’s economy.

Kenya has maintained economic stability and fiscal discipline even in the face of fiscal pressure from the March 2013 elections, a new devolved system of governance, public sector pay pressure and rising security costs associated with security operations in Somalia. The economy is expected to grow at 5.8-6% this year, even after the temporary shock of the September 17, 2013 terrorist attack in Nairobi, according to projections by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This will be a significant improvement over the 4.6% gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate it recorded in 2012, and inflation is also expected to remain at single digit. For the first time in recent years, Kenya is likely to match the average growth rate of 6% of its peers in the East African Community and Sub-Saharan Africa, but it will still be significantly short of the Vision 2030 target growth rate of 10%.

In line with the conititution and PFM Act 2012 requihement, the couney has developed its CInP with clear set priorities to be implemented within 2013-2017 plan period to foster the county’s developtent agenda. Emphasis has been put on agriculture with 76 eercent of the population depending on it. Infrastructure, Health, Educatine, tourism and oport being the other settoi aimeo at draving the county’s ecenomic growth